Opening Play for Tuesday 6/17

6-16-2014 8-55-38 PMCommentary:

GOOD Morning traders!

Start of FOMC meeting normally has a Positive Bias.   The Russell has a steady up trending channel on the intraday charts and closed at the upper end of its range (despite some mid day gyrations). The short term summation tick indicator is not more oversold than overbought and there is fuel for more upside to the index futures.  The Dow and transports were able to correct back to the daily EMA while the SPs came within a few points. Markets like to climb a wall of worry and the past several days with overseas tensions may have provided an excuse.

Currencies are tightly coiled going into FOMC.  The  Yen and AD have breakout formations.  The EC is still in an overall downtrend and has a 240 minute Power Sell.    trades from the long side have been “scalp only”.

Main questions:  what about the metals and crude?   All made their highs on Sunday nights “news” and closed at the lower end of their range on Monday.  There were 240 minute sell divergences.  For Tuesday and Wednesday – watch to see how close they can retrace back to the daily 5 SMA – they may need a healthy flush below this to shake off the overly speculative bullish sentiment readings.  A better chart is COPPER which broke its down trending channel and formed Buy Divergences on the 2-period ROC.    Still  – any extreme morning flush in silver can still present a buying opportunity as well

The Nov beans remain in a trading range that eventually should lead to a trend move.

Bonds – on back burner till FOMC results on Wednesday!

Have a great day! – Linda


Tradesheet from snagit