January 08, 2014

 The Pinball Buys led to an intraday rally but failed to lead to a close back above the 5 SMA.  The Russell closed with an Inside Range Day and the SPs closed below their opening price for the second  down day.  The breakout mode in the Russell implies that the market can breakout in either direction on Monday morning –  lower to the  daily EMA or back up above the 5 SMA.  The 2-period ROC is configured for a Buy Day.   All players should be back to the table Monday morning. 

The 120 minute charts are still on Buys.   There is a  possibility that they will put in a lower high. If SPs trade below 1820.50, Friday’s low, 1817.75  and then 1806.75 are the next two downside pivots.  There is  a small intraday gap that comes into play at 1818.25.   To the upside,  the  Russell is holding fine. Small caps tend to outperform big cap blue chips in the month of January.  Breadth was actually positive throughout Friday.  1158.40 is the start of an upside  gap on the Russell.  Main levels for the SPs:   1830.5,  1835.  The daily 5 SMA comes in at 1832.  Tho the 2-period ROC suggests a Buy Day,  with a narrow consolidation day on Friday and market participants coming back on Monday, keep an open mind – the technicals support a  move in either direction.

Bonds:  breakout mode      EC – check out weekly chart formation below…Friday made new  momentum lows on the 2-period ROC.  CL also made new  momentum lows on the 2-period ROC.  Often, a market stays under pressure in the direction of the momentum after these extremes until better divergences form on the 2-period ROC. ( The exception is the less likely V spike Wide range reversal).  AD – possible bear trap unless close back above 89.16    CD – ID/breakout bar.   JY – 2-period ROC poised to flip back down.

GC – new  momentum highs again, technicals turned up on the dailies.  Silver has not yet  confirmed, but  it has breakout Mode for Monday.

Cows –  main market on extended run to upside.  Wheat – Buy Divergence on daily  can lead to upside follow through.

Wishing all a great start to the New Year!   Linda

jan3Daily Tradesheet, new website